The industrialization paradox under energy‐transition policies: Do <scp>ICT</scp> , economic growth and natural resource rents promote renewable energy adoption?

Abstract Newly industrialized countries face a growth–transition paradox: economic expansion and resource rents finance development but can lock in fossil dependence. Using annual NIC data for 1990–2024, we test whether growth and natural resource rents promote renewable energy, and how industrialization, financial development, and ICT shape this link. Second‐generation diagnostics confirm slope heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence, and cointegration among REN, GDP, NRR, IND, FDE, and ICT. We then estimate Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR, τ = 0.10–0.90) and cross‐check with FMOLS/DOLS/FE‐OLS and Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality. MMQR shows GDP is positive and significant across all quantiles—strongest at the tails; NRR is consistently negative, with larger magnitudes at upper quantiles; IND is mostly negative beyond lower quantiles (one positive estimate at τ = 0.20); FDE and ICT have mixed, generally insignificant effects. Benchmarks corroborate GDP(+) and FDE(+) with IND(−) on average. Causality indicates GDP → REN, NRR → REN, FDE → REN, bidirectional REN↔IND, and no ICT–REN causality. Overall, growth reliably supports renewables, resource‐rent dependence hinders them, industrial pressure tilts against REN without correction, and enabling institutions are uneven—effects that vary across the adoption distribution.