Dynamics and determinants of forest cover changes in the inner Congo basin

• Deforestation increased due to population growth, urban expansion, and agricultural demands. • Though impact is limited, small-scale farming has substantial effect on forest cover. • Geographical and production factors influence agricultural practices in Congo Basin. • Stakeholder profiles reveal contrasting deforestation dynamics. • Context-based policies are required for each stakeholder group in land use planning. Massive deforestation and forest degradation have been observed in the inner Congo basin in the last decades. While agricultural expansion onto forest land is widely recognized as the main driver of deforestation, local dynamics and social drivers remain understudied. This study investigates both the forest cover dynamics monitored from satellite products and the agricultural practices from household interviews across the Tshopo, the largest province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We combined satellite-based forest cover data (Tropical Moist Forest dataset, 1990–2023) with household surveys ( n = 850) around Kisangani, the provincial capital, and up to 150 km along the six main road axes. Between 1990 and 2023, 9.7 % of mature tropical moist forest — corresponding to 1905,800 ha — was lost across the Tshopo province, being deforested, degraded, or disturbed. Deforestation accelerated since 2010, and the spatial pattern indicates urban expansion, and agricultural encroachment into forests. Household interviews confirm that small-scale farming is the dominant agricultural system in the region (94 % of respondents), with fields mostly installed on fallow land. The food crops such as cassava, rice, maize and bananas are predominant and perennial crops such as oil palms, cocoa and coffee are less common. Geographical and production factors, namely proximity to Kisangani city and household economic capital, are the main determinants of agricultural practices in the Tshopo. Although individual small-scale farming has a limited impact on forest cover (only 11 % of food crop fields and 8 % of perennial crop plantations are established on mature forest lands), the cumulative effect of seasonal land conversion is substantial. Household-level deforestation (349 ha per cropping season for 850 households) extrapolated to approximately 195,000 ha of mature forest cleared annually across the province. Given the high level of human impact and poverty in the region, it is crucial to promote sustainable agricultural practices that increase productivity without encroaching on mature forests, considering the diversity of producer profiles, in a context of high instability.