Farmers’ perceptions and willingness to adopt mobile forecasting applications for crop production and subsidized fertilizer distribution

Fluctuations in the production and prices of strategic commodities remain a major challenge in Indonesian agriculture, compounded by the suboptimal distribution of subsidized fertilizers. Mobile forecasting applications offer potential to predict yields and fertilizer needs adaptively. This study analyzes farmers' perceptions and willingness to adopt the application in four districts in the Special Region of Yogyakarta with a sample of 80 farmers. Data were collected through Likert-scale questionnaires and open-ended questions, then analyzed using Spearman's correlation. Findings show that farmers' perceptions were moderate (mean score 3.57), with the highest ratings for ease of use, while perceived direct benefits on income and price risk remained uncertain. Willingness to adopt was high (mean score 3.82), reflecting readiness to adjust planting schedules, provide production data, and attend training. However, concerns over internet costs and rural infrastructure persist. Spearman's correlation revealed a very strong relationship between perception and willingness to adopt (r = 0.774; p < 0.01). Overall, farmers show cautious optimism toward mobile forecasting. Adoption will require supportive strategies including training, socialization, extension, and affordable access. The study highlights the potential of mobile forecasting to improve production efficiency and fertilizer distribution if implemented consistently and sustainably.