Spatio-temporal dynamics in Bhitarkanika mangroves amid climate change showcasing the resilience and vulnerability due to cyclonic events

Mangroves form a critical ecological shield for tropical coastlines, yet they are increasingly threatened by climate change, extreme events, and human interventions. Assessing their health and vulnerability is therefore essential for sustainable coastal management. The integration of MaxEnt, MIROC6 climate projections, and 20-year LCLU data allows for assessing mangrove resilience under both historical and future climatic extremes. The present study identifies changes in land cover/use of Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary during the period 2004–2024 using multi-temporal satellite images. The resilience and vulnerability of mangroves was estimated using the global climate model MIROC6 and incorporating extreme events. The spatio-temporal, remotely sensed high-resolution LANDSAT series satellite imagery utilized for the study region for the time period of 2004–2024. The pixel-based random forest supervised classification technique using Google Earth Engine has been used for LC/LU classification. The results indicate that dense mangrove cover remained stable at approximately 135 km² in both 2009 and 2024. However, from 2004 to 2024, there was an overall growth of about 2.12 %. In contrast, agricultural land expanded by 382.21 km², showing a growth of 10.55 % over the same period. The open vegetation class showed a gradual but notable increase of approximately 105.40 km² between 2004 and 2024, representing an 89.77 % growth. Furthermore, projections suggest that mangrove resilience will improve significantly, with an estimated increase of 499.77 km² under the SSP 370 scenario and 459.27 km² under SSP 585. The study's outcome provides a robust framework to link land-use dynamics with species distribution and climate-driven vulnerability, which can be utilised by forest managers, local authorities, and the government in conservation and planning management strategies. Graphical abstract showing the Spatio-temporal analysis of Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary (2004–2024) using multi-temporal Landsat imagery along with mangrove resilience and vulnerability. • Multi-temporal Landsat data (2004–2024) assessed LC/LU changes in Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary. • Dense mangrove cover remained stable (135 km²) with a marginal 2.12 % growth. • Agricultural land expanded by 382.21 km² and open vegetation by 105.40 km². • Mangrove resilience projected to rise under SSP 370 (499.77 km²) and SSP 585 (459.27 km²). • Findings support climate-resilient conservation and sustainable management strategies.