Impact of Bandit Activities on Subsistence Farming and Food Supply Chains In and Around Oyo and Kwara State Borders in Nigeria

Incidence of insecurity and banditry activities has increased in Nigeria in recent years, with its attendant impact on food production and farming activities. There is dearth of information with respect to this development, and the trajectory is yet unfathomable, hence this study assessed the impact of banditry on subsistence agriculture and local food supply chains in the border regions of Oyo and Kwara States in Nigeria. Recognising the critical role of these areas in regional food production, the research examines the nexus between insecurity and food system fragility. It was hypothesized that bandit activities directly reduce cultivated land area, disrupt market access, and increase food prices, thereby threatening household food security. Study employed a mixed-methods, numerically inclined approach, conducting a three-month survey (August–November 2025) across 40 randomly selected farming communities. Primary data was collected via structured questionnaires administered to 400 household heads, capturing metrics on: (1) percentage change in cultivated land area from 2024 to 2025, (2) frequency of market access (trips/month), (3) incidence of crop loss (%), and (4) monthly household expenditure on staple foods. These were cross-referenced with geospatial data on conflict incidents from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Preliminary results indicate a significant negative correlation. Communities within 10km of a recorded bandit incident reported a 42% average reduction in cultivated area, a 60% decrease in market visits, and a 28% increase in local grain prices compared to those farther than 20km. Furthermore, 71% of surveyed households reported moderate to severe food insecurity. The study concludes that banditry has a statistically severe, localized impact, crippling subsistence production and destabilizing informal supply chains. These findings underscore the need for integrated security and agricultural livelihood interventions to safeguard food sovereignty in Nigeria’s vulnerable border regions.