Estimating the demand and cost-effectiveness of a hydrogen-based decarbonization strategy for airports

The aviation sector remains a significant source of emissions in Canada that must be decarbonized to meet its net-zero emissions target by 2050, as mandated by the Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. This study examines a 2050 scenario where 38 of Canada's largest airports operate as multimodal hydrogen airport hubs. An hourly, service-level modeling framework is developed to estimate hydrogen demand, addressing a key gap in the literature; it is applied to all 38 airports. A benefit-cost analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of this transition. Results show annual hydrogen demand of 5.6–8.2 MtH 2 by 2050, with aviation fuel comprising 98 % of the demand. Carbon abatement costs range from 320 to 2,130 CA$/tCO 2 airport-wide, and from 360 to 1,500 CA$/tCO 2 for aviation, suggesting hydrogen could compete with drop-in power-to-liquid synthetic aviation fuels under certain conditions. The broad range of estimates reflects significant uncertainties in hydrogen supply costs. • The study models hourly energy demand for multimodal hydrogen airport hubs. • Aviation comprises 98 % of hydrogen demand at major airports, 80 % at smaller ones. • The cost of carbon abatement (CCA) ranges from 320 to 2,130 CA$/tCO 2 . • Ground support equipment and heavy-duty vehicles achieve the lowest CCAs. • Hydrogen aircraft achieve a CCA of 360 to 1,500 CA$/tCO 2 , potentially rivaling those using sustainable aviation fuel.