The green energy transition in air transport – an analysis of supply chains for hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels

The aviation industry’s transition to new energy carriers has only recently begun. Under the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is now mandated, with growing shares of SAF from biological and non-biological origins over time. In parallel, the industry is developing aircraft powered by hydrogen — either through combustion in turboprop or turbofan engines, or via fuel cells generating electricity for electric motors. These developments mark a shift away from today’s petroleum-based jet fuels. Several studies have estimated future demand for hydrogen and SAF in aviation, but few have examined the supply chains dedicated to transporting these new energy carriers. As with crude oil and jet fuel today, a substantial share of Europe’s future aviation energy demand is likely to be met by imports from regions with abundant, low-cost renewable energy. Based on existing techno-economic studies, this paper explores supply chain options for liquid hydrogen as well as alternative hydrogen carriers such as ammonia and liquid organic hydrogen carriers. It also examines supply options for synthetic SAF (renewable fuels of non-biological origin, RFNBO), which may involve also intermediate carriers like hydrogen, methanol, or syncrude. The central question is how to design an aviation energy supply chain for the EU that is both energy- and cost-efficient while minimizing dependence on external suppliers. The paper provides an overview of potential supply chains, offering a techno-economic assessment of various energy carriers and discussing the pros and cons of each. This analysis highlights the likely infrastructure needs at seaports, refineries, and in hinterland distribution to airports.