Climate-smart apiary site selection in East Africa: GIS-based analysis of current and future climate projections

Purpose This study aims to evaluate beekeeping as a sustainable strategy to enhance resilience in East African agriculture by improving food security, livelihoods and pollination services. Using GIS-based analysis, it identifies climate-smart apiary sites, assesses current suitability and forecasts future conditions to support sustainable practices and climate adaptation. Design/methodology/approach This study sought to improve the robustness and adaptability of apiary site selection in Yabelo, Ethiopia and Taita-Taveta County, Kenya by using fuzzy Multicriteria Decision-Making methods under current climate and future low emission (SSP1-2.6) and high emission (SSP1-2.6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. By integrating these future climate scenarios, the authors assessed the future suitability of the apiary area under changing climate conditions. Findings The results revealed that under current climate conditions, 40.2% of the Yabelo area is highly suitable for beekeeping, with 43.6% and 16.2% being moderately and less suitable areas, respectively. On the other hand, Taita-Taveta County had higher current suitability, with 54.9% classified as highly suitable, 34.0% as moderately suitable and 11.2% as less suitable. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, highly suitable areas had a decreasing trend in both sites, whereas moderately and less suitable areas exhibited an increasing trend, reflecting the impact of climate change on apiary site variability. Despite these trends, Taita-Taveta County exhibited higher overall suitability than Yabelo. By anticipating future climate conditions, this study emphasized the importance of integrating climate projection into suitability analysis to ensure the long-term variability and resilience of beekeeping operations in East Africa. Practical implications This study highlights the role of beekeeping as a climate-resilient strategy to enhance livelihoods and food security in East Africa. Integrating climate projections allows policymakers to prioritize beekeeping through adaptive agricultural policies, while refined site selection methods help identify climate-suitable apiary locations. Targeted support for moderately suitable areas, along with broader adaptation strategies, will help sustain productivity and resilience in climate-sensitive regions, promoting long-term rural sustainability. Originality/value The manuscript was prepared based on the primary data and hence, it provides fresh insights.