Unraveling three-decade dynamics and drivers of thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau

• The dynamics of 58,538 thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were tracked. • 82.1 % of lakes experienced area growth, and only 15 % exhibited shrinkage. • Lake expansion was mainly affected by topographic and climatic factors. • Differences in evaporation and soil temperature trends influence lake shrinkage. Recent climate warming has accelerated permafrost thaw and dynamics of thermokarst lakes (TLs) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Yet, owing to the lack of long-term monitoring of TLs, our understanding of lake evolution processes and their driving factors remains uncertain. Here, using the global surface water product and time-series Landsat imagery, we identified 58,538 TLs (0.01–3 km 2 ) and determined the primary occurrence year of lake changes from 1990 to 2022. Our results indicated that TLs on the TP are primarily located in the central inland region, over 82 % of lakes experienced area expansion, and only 15 % in the northwest show decrease in area. Annual number of lake expansion peaked in 2016, whereas lake shrinkage was most common in 2019. The calculated lake area errors, field investigations, and validation of lake disturbance time demonstrated high accuracy and consistency. We applied the optimal machine learning regression model to distinguish the different drivers for lake expansion and shrinkage. The topographic and climatic factors are primary drivers for lake expansion, while differences in evaporation trend and soil temperature trend might contribute to lake shrinkage. This study highlights the vulnerability of permafrost on the TP to climate change, which can contribute to carbon sequestration estimation and infrastructure maintenance.