Livelihood Capital and Behavioral Responses of Small-Scale Fishers Under Seasonal Fishing Moratoria: Evidence from Coastal China

Global fishery resources are under increasing pressure from environmental change and institutional constraints. China’s seasonal fishing moratorium has contributed to resource recovery but has also created income and employment challenges for small-scale fishers. This study examines how livelihood capital structures shape annual livelihood portfolios under predictable closure constraints, using three representative fishing communities in Guangdong Province as case studies. A combination of data augmentation, regression analysis, and agent-based simulation was applied to analyze the relationships between capital endowments and behavioral responses. Results show that environmental and financial capital significantly increase the likelihood of maintaining capture as the primary livelihood, while psychological capital stabilizes decisions under uncertainty. Physical capital and social networks exhibit more variable effects, reflecting differentiated adaptive capacities. Simulations further reveal threshold effects and diminishing marginal returns in capital accumulation, with heterogeneous temporal impacts across capital types. Theoretically, the study extends the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach by incorporating environmental and psychological capital, thereby enriching the understanding of capital mechanisms in fisheries. Overall, the findings advance knowledge of how small-scale fishers adapt under institutional constraints and provide practical insights for policies aimed at aligning livelihood security with the sustainable use of marine resources.