Breast Cancer Risk Stratification in Black Women: Current Status and Potential Solutions to Improve Accuracy

Breast cancer risk stratification models identify individuals at increased risk, allowing earlier screening than for those at average risk and potentially improving health outcomes. Due to the increasing rates of breast cancer in individuals aged <40 years, especially among Black females, the American College of Radiology now recommends all females initiate breast cancer risk assessment by age 25 years. Several breast cancer risk prediction models are readily available, including the Gail Model, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Risk Calculator, BOADICEA, and Tyrer-Cuzick Model. However, because these models were primarily developed using data from White women of European ancestry, they may underestimate risk in Black women. Indeed, current evidence suggests that these models underpredict breast cancer risk among Black women, particularly those of African ancestry. Although cancer risk prediction models typically incorporate personal characteristics, family history of cancer, and hormonal and lifestyle factors, inherited breast cancer genes can also increase risk for breast cancer. Beyond monogenic inherited breast cancer genes that increase breast cancer risk, emerging data suggest that single nucleotide polymorphisms identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may be used to generate polygenic risk scores, which may further refine breast cancer risk. However, GWAS data are also primarily gathered from European ancestry females, further reducing the ability to accurately stratify breast cancer risk in non-European ancestry populations. Current data highlight the importance of ensuring representation from all populations in developing cancer risk prediction models, conducting genomics research, and designing effective implementation strategies to enhance the use of these models in routine clinical care. Although new analytic methods and models are being developed to improve breast cancer risk stratification across populations, it remains critical to assess the utility and calibration of existing and new models to ensure applicability across non-European ancestry populations.