Understanding foreign policy through political settlements: insights from Tanzania

Abstract This paper investigates the connection between political settlements and foreign policy in Tanzania, focusing on how domestic power shifts impact external relations. Utilising Political Settlements Analysis (PSA), it examines the transition from John Magufuli’s presidency to Samia Suluhu Hassan’s, uncovering how elite configurations and intra-party dynamics shape foreign policy choices. The analysis draws on fieldwork, interviews and document reviews, revealing how changes in Tanzania’s political settlement – from Magufuli’s centralisation and populism to Hassan’s return to cooperative diplomacy – have influenced policies on resource management, international legal commitments and regional engagement. By illustrating the reciprocal relationship between domestic political configurations and foreign policy, this paper not only enhances the understanding of Tanzania’s case but also contributes to broader debates on the significance of political settlements in shaping the foreign policies of African states.