Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Land Use Carbon Emissions (LUCE) in Coastal Areas—A Case Study of Hainan Island

Addressing land use carbon emissions (LUCE) is critical for mitigating climate change. Using multi-source heterogeneous data from 2010 to 2020, with Land use transition matrix and Kaya-LMDI model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of LUCE on Hainan Island. The results indicate the following: (1) The study period witnessed significant land use transitions relevant to carbon stocks. Forest area (a key carbon sink) decreased substantially by 2188.74 km2, while construction land (a major emission source) expanded by 182.10 km2. (2) Consequently, total net LUCE increased by 54% over the decade. This growth was overwhelmingly driven by a 60.8% increase in carbon emissions from the expansion of construction land. (3) The driver analysis indicates that LUCE growth was significantly promoted by land finance dependence and economic development, with these effects exhibiting significant spatial heterogeneity. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing low-carbon land use policies and offers critical insights for sustainable development in island areas.