No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming

According to the scientific consensus, tropical convection must decrease with global warming. This decrease is manifested by a decrease of the mass transported in the upward branch of the atmospheric overturning circulation - the convective mass flux - and a connected decrease of high clouds in the tropics, with implications for climate sensitivity. By using kilometer-scale simulations in radiative-convective equilibrium and a convective tracking algorithm, we show that no such decrease occurs in storms when taken individually and that the mass transport per storm increases instead. Storms can achieve this result by aggregating more surface of the convective cores - the inner part of the storm doing the vertical transport - so that the decrease of tropical convection is actually explained by a decrease in the total number of storms. There is little variation of the mean pressure velocity in the cores of the storms, a robust finding of this study. This remarkable invariance of the mean pressure velocity points to an emerging property of convection that should receive more attention in future studies.

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published
2025-12-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
article

No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming

article en

Abstract

According to the scientific consensus, tropical convection must decrease with global warming. This decrease is manifested by a decrease of the mass transported in the upward branch of the atmospheric overturning circulation - the convective mass flux - and a connected decrease of high clouds in the tropics, with implications for climate sensitivity. By using kilometer-scale simulations in radiative-convective equilibrium and a convective tracking algorithm, we show that no such decrease occurs in storms when taken individually and that the mass transport per storm increases instead. Storms can achieve this result by aggregating more surface of the convective cores - the inner part of the storm doing the vertical transport - so that the decrease of tropical convection is actually explained by a decrease in the total number of storms. There is little variation of the mean pressure velocity in the cores of the storms, a robust finding of this study. This remarkable invariance of the mean pressure velocity points to an emerging property of convection that should receive more attention in future studies.

npj Climate and Atmospheric ScienceVol. 9(1)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (FR), École Polytechnique (FR), Institute of Science and Technology Austria (AT), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), École Normale Supérieure - PSL (FR), Sorbonne Université (FR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
European Commission, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 34%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS