A Robust Wind Power Forecasting Framework for Non-Stationary Signals via Decomposition and Metaheuristic Optimization

Accurate wind power forecasting is crucial for the secure and efficient integration of renewable energy into the power grid. However, the inherent intermittency and non-stationary nature of wind power pose significant challenges to prediction models. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting framework named VMD-IPCA-IHSO-FSRVFL. This model synergistically combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), incremental principal component analysis (IPCA) for feature selection, an improved holistic swarm optimization (IHSO) algorithm, and a feature space-regularized random vector functional link (FSRVFL) network. The VMD first decomposes the complex original wind power signal into several stable sub-sequences to simplify the prediction task. The IPCA then identifies and selects the most relevant features, reducing data redundancy and noise. Subsequently, the IHSO algorithm is employed to automatically optimize the hyperparameters of the FSRVFL model, enhancing its performance and convergence speed. Finally, the optimized FSRVFL, a computationally efficient semi-supervised learning model, performs the final prediction. The proposed model was validated using four seasonal datasets from a Chinese offshore wind farm. Experimental results demonstrate that our VMD-IPCA-IHSO-FSRVFL model significantly outperforms other benchmark models, including BP, ELM, RVFL, and their variants, across all evaluation metrics (MSE, RMSE, MAE, and R2). The findings confirm that the integration of signal decomposition, effective feature selection, and intelligent parameter optimization substantially improves forecasting accuracy and stability under different seasonal conditions. This study provides a robust and effective solution for wind power prediction, offering valuable insights for wind farm operation and grid management.