Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier: Expert Perspectives on Human Security in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is at the forefront of climate change impacts because of its geographical location, high population density, and constrained socio-economic infrastructure. Our objective is to explore the impacts of climate change on human security components and conflict constellation, and identify adaptation actors through the lens of experts in Bangladesh. We conducted 12 semi-structured qualitative interviews with lead experts using the Problem-centred Interview (PCI) methodology and inductively applied content analysis to analyse the data, complemented with descriptive statistics. Experts see a shift in baseline risk due to the increase in frequency and severity of natural hazards. It exacerbates existing vulnerabilities by declining agricultural productivity, undermining water security and increasing migration. Food, economic, and water security are predominantly impacted, where women and the poor suffer disproportionately. Impacts on urban areas, energy and community security are under-researched. Experts agreed that climate change is a “threat multiplier” and could aggravate political insecurity, leading to conflicts. Individuals and households are primary adaptation actors, followed by governmental and non-governmental organisations. This research contributes to the broader understanding of the complex nexus of climate change impacts, human security, and conflict constellation, complements climate models and provides policy-relevant insights for inclusive, long-term adaptation grounded in local realities in Bangladesh.