Analyzing Speculative Factors Affecting Land-Use Changes: Evidence from the Gisha Neighborhood in Tehran, Iran

Land use undergoes rapid changes with urban growth, often driven by profit speculation, leading to substantial shifts in the patterns of economic activity. This phenomenon poses serious challenges to urban planning, because it can create gaps between the intended use of land and the actual market behaviors. Land-use changes in developing countries are significant due to economic factors, especially in urban areas. This study focuses on one of the neighborhoods in northern Tehran, Iran, which has experienced a nearly 40% increase in commercial activity over the last 17 years. Notably, this neighborhood (Gisha) features one bank every 45 m, highlighting the influence of speculation on these transformations. Thus, this research seeks to answer the following questions: What factors have led to this shift toward commercial use, and how significant is speculation? Factor analysis was employed to identify key influences on land use and assess the extent to which speculation versus genuine community needs to drive these changes. According to the results, the identified factors include accessibility, land-use economics and activity distribution, and neighborhood structure. Ultimately, the findings indicate that the speculative nature of land changes along Gisha neighborhood reflects immediate market pressures on urban development. The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the negative social and economic impacts associated with land-use changes, particularly the shift toward commercial purposes. By understanding the dynamics of speculation, urban planners can develop effective strategies to mitigate these effects. This research contributes to sustainable urban development strategies that consider community needs and economic growth.