Spatio-temporal evolutionary analysis of regional drought resilience based on game theory combinatorial empowerment

With the intensification of climate change and the increasing frequency of drought events, China faces significant challenges from drought disasters, which severely impact both daily life and economic development. As a result, it is critical to assess regional drought resilience to inform the formulation of effective drought response strategies, mitigate adverse impacts on livelihoods and economic activities, and ensure water security and sustainable socio-economic growth. However, studies often focus on a limited selection of indicators and primarily target specific regions or cities, which does not fully capture the broader context of China's drought resilience. This study seeks to assess China's overall drought resilience, propose effective measures to enhance resilience, and strengthen urban disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities to safeguard the stable development of urban economies. Using a regional drought resilience evaluation index system, this paper analyzes China's drought resilience's temporal and spatial evolution from 2013 to 2022 through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and TOPSIS methods. The results indicate a general upward trend in drought resilience across China's 30 provincial-level administrative regions, with a noticeable shift of the center of gravity toward the southern regions. Key factors – such as water resource management, drought infrastructure development, and socio-economic support – are further explored, and they influence the spatial and temporal patterns of drought resilience. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are provided, along with suggestions for future research directions. • Temporal/spatial evolution of China's drought resilience from 2013 to 2022 analyzed. • Drought resilience shows an upward trend with a shift toward southern regions. • Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and TOPSIS methods applied to assess resilience. • Water resources and infrastructure critical in shaping regional drought resilience. • Policy recommendations for strengthening drought resilience across regions.