Mapping Heatwave Vulnerability: Multidimensional Assessment of Heatwave Vulnerability from an Environmental and Socioeconomic Perspective

This research implements a multidimensional conceptual framework to assess heatwave vulnerability across Türkiye, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) three-component definition of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The framework operationalizes these components using an indicator approach. Heatwave exposure is measured by the frequency of heatwave days, while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are represented by 18 physical and human geography variables. Indicators and variables were weighted using the analytic hierarchy process, resulting in four subindices and a composite heatwave vulnerability index (HVI). The index values were classified into five categories: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high, and spatial models were created. Findings show that high heatwave exposure is concentrated in northern and northwestern Türkiye, with a significant increase in the eastern and southeastern Marmara region. The study observes a general gradient of decreasing heatwave exposure from northwest to southeast. The HVI results reflect these spatial patterns, indicating high to very high vulnerability in western, northwestern, and northern regions, and very low to low vulnerability in eastern and southeastern regions. These insights can guide regional planning, policy-making, and future climate vulnerability research in Türkiye.