Fire for the Ages: Proxy Reanalysis and Modern Relevance of the March 1906 Southern Great Plains Megafires

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) is used to estimate synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with historic accounts of two very large wildfires, one of which reportedly burned >24 281 km2 (>6 million acres) on the southern Great Plains of New Mexico and Texas in March 1906. The reanalysis reveals atmospheric features consistent with recent wildfire outbreaks and megafires in the region. Fire perimeter mapping of modern megafires that occurred under similar meteorological conditions in the same geographical region were modified to approximate the reported dimensions of the March 1906 fires. Connecting the past to the present provides historical precedence and context for the escalation of southern Great Plains wildfire outbreaks and megafires observed in the region during recent decades. Fire, land, and emergency management officials, as well as fire forecasters, can use this proxy reanalysis as a reference point for planning. It illustrates a potential worst-case scenario for the plains fire regime without modern land use practices and fire suppression.