Financial strain in Norway: The lifetime risk of and expected time spent in payment problems

Abstract We calculate the lifetime risks and expectancies of payment problems in Norway, the country with the highest household debt burden among the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries. We derived geographic, demographic, socio‐economic and health variables from national registers and data on monthly payment problems from the national debt collection agency for the 2015–2019 period. We analysed these data in a discrete multistate modelling framework and calculated the metrics for synthetic cohorts who experience the current payment problem risks throughout their life course. Some third of the synthetic cohort members experienced payment problems at least once during their life course, with the share being higher among men. The life expectancy with payment problems at age 18 was 2.1 years, which corresponded to 3% of the total life expectancy. Across the intersections of low education, sex, record of psychiatric diagnosis and area‐level income, the longer the payment problem expectancy these groups had, the shorter their total life expectancy was. Payment problems can be chronic, and have the same upstream determinants as early mortality.