Переговори в Маскаті

The study is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of preventive diplomacy as a modern and effective mechanism for the prevention and peaceful settlement of international and internal conflicts in a globally changing world. Preventive diplomacy is considered as “modern diplomacy with a feature” – a tool aimed at the most effective and rational use of diplomatic means to reduce tension before it develops into an open military conflict. Unlike traditional approaches that focus on resolving existing crises, preventive diplomacy emphasizes early detection of potential threats and timely diplomatic intervention. The work demonstrates that conflict prevention is significantly cheaper and more effective compared to subsequent costs for military operations, peacekeeping missions and post-conflict reconstruction. In addition to economic feasibility, preventive diplomacy has a deep humanitarian dimension – it allows saving human lives, preventing mass population displacement and humanitarian disasters. The study reveals practical mechanisms and forms of preventive diplomacy: monitoring electoral processes and preventing electoral fraud as a trigger for conflicts; protecting minority rights as a means of preventing discriminatory practices; an early warning system based on big data analysis and monitoring by international organizations; negotiations and mediation at the local and national levels; exchange of factual information and diplomatic consultations between the parties to a potential conflict. The analysis of specific cases illustrates how timely diplomatic intervention by the UN and regional organizations prevented crises from escalating into armed conflicts. Particular attention is paid to refugees as an indicator of instability - a mass outflow of population often signals a critical deterioration of the situation and the need for urgent preventive measures. The study contains a critical analysis of current international practice, which often does not respond sufficiently to early signs of crises, and justifies the need to strengthen the preventive component in global security strategies.