How the existing workforce adapts to a massive forced return migration shock

The 1975 eruption of Civil Wars in Portuguese-speaking Africa sparked the return of half a million retornados to Portugal. We use census data from 1960 and 1981 to study the impacts of this massive influx of workers on the existing workforce. We observe gendered effects in natives’ labour market outcomes: male and female natives leave dependent employment. We find robust evidence of females moving to inactivity, and suggestive evidence that males move into self-employment. The effects are driven by the repatriates who are Portuguese-born. The identification strategy exploits the repatriates’ municipality of birth and a large-scale resettlement program relying on hotel capacity.