Local sensitivity analysis of heating degree day and cooling degree day temperature derivative prices

We study the local sensitivity of heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) temper-ature futures and option prices with respect to perturbations in the deseasonalized temperature or inone of its derivatives up to a certain order determined by the continuous-time autoregressive pro-cess modelling the deseasonalized temperature in the HDD and CDD indexes. We also consider anempirical case where a continuous-time process of autoregressive order 3 is fitted to New York tem-peratures and we perform a study of the local sensitivity of these financial contracts and a posterioranalysis of the results.

Publication Details

Journal
Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona)
Published
2025-03-26
Primary Topic
Stochastic processes and financial applications
Type
article
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article

Local sensitivity analysis of heating degree day and cooling degree day temperature derivative prices

Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona)
Stochastic processes and financial applications
article

Local sensitivity analysis of heating degree day and cooling degree day temperature derivative prices

article en

Abstract

We study the local sensitivity of heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) temper-ature futures and option prices with respect to perturbations in the deseasonalized temperature or inone of its derivatives up to a certain order determined by the continuous-time autoregressive pro-cess modelling the deseasonalized temperature in the HDD and CDD indexes. We also consider anempirical case where a continuous-time process of autoregressive order 3 is fitted to New York tem-peratures and we perform a study of the local sensitivity of these financial contracts and a posterioranalysis of the results.

Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 31%
Stochastic processes and financial applications
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Local sensitivity analysis of heating degree day and cooling degree day temperature derivative prices · Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona) (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS