The Forest Through the Trees: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Potential Assemblage Distribution of Oak-hickory Forests Across the Eastern U.S.

Understanding how tree species’ ranges and populations may shift by the end of the 21st Century is critical for effective conservation and forest management. Ecological niche models are widely used to predict species distributions by modeling the relationships between environmental variables and species presence. While numerous models have been developed for individual tree species across the USA, there is limited research on how tree species assemblages, such as oak-hickory forests, will respond to changes in climate over time. Maxent modeling software was used to predict potential shifts in suitable habitat for the oak-hickory forest type, based on environmental variables including climate, soil, and topography. Results indicate a significant northward shift in suitable habitat for oak-hickory forests, driven by changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Climate-induced habitat shifts may require active forest management strategies, including facilitating species dispersal to newly suitable areas, to ensure the long-term persistence of oak-hickory forest ecosystems.