Marine Ecosystem Services Disruption and Social Violence

Over the past century, human activities have profoundly altered ocean and coastal ecosystems, significantly impacting communities whose livelihoods depend on these environments. This dissertation explores how disruptions in marine ecosystem services contribute to the emergence of social violence in coastal communities, with a specific focus on the Colombian Caribbean. While prior research suggests a potential link between environmental degradation and conflict, empirical evidence remains limited and inconclusive. This study addresses that gap through a multi-method, interdisciplinary approach that integrates environmental science, political science, and computational modeling to examine the mechanisms linking ecosystem disruption to social violence. The research follows a three-stage research path that combines qualitative and quantitative methods. First, it conducts an empirical analysis of how climate change-induced disruptions in marine ecosystem services affect selected sites in the Colombian Caribbean, utilizing environmental data, statistical techniques, and geospatial analysis. Second, a semi-digital survey experiment examines how narratives of ecosystem service disruption influence public perceptions of non-state violent actors, investigating whether environmental stress increases social tolerance toward such groups. Finally, an agent-based simulation model is developed to explore the conditions under which ecosystem degradation may lead to social violence, drawing on empirical insights from the previous stages. By applying an innovative conceptual and methodological framework, this dissertation offers new insights into the mechanisms linking environmental change and social instability. The findings suggest that environmental degradation not only heightens adverse social outcomes but also increases community vulnerability to violent actors. These results carry significant implications for policymakers, conservation practitioners, and scholars by underscoring the need for sustainable marine ecosystem management strategies that address both ecological and social resilience. Ultimately, this research advances our understanding of the complex socio-environmental dynamics shaping human security in the face of climate change.