Statistical Modelling in Enrolment Management: A Higher Education Case Study

Enrolment management is important to institutions of higher learning. Administrators at these institutions are annually faced by the question: how many offers for a given academic programme should be made to applicants to meet the registration target set by the authorities? Data on past and new applicants are available at most institutions. In this paper, data from the Faculty of Natural Sciences at the University of the Western Cape are used to develop a statistical model that provides estimates of the likelihood of new applicants accepting registration offers from the Faculty. The paper therefore contributes to the important field of strategic enrolment management. The paper shows how a statistical model estimated from historical data can assist administrators to determine the number of offers that should be extended to applicants to reach a given registration target.