Avaliação do perigo de queda de cinzas para cenários de erupção Sub-Pliniana no vulcão do Fogo (São Miguel, Açores)

ABSTRACT: The geological setting of the Azores makes this region prone to volcanic eruptions. A future explosive eruption in the Azores could have a significant socioeconomic impact and affect the North Atlantic airspace. This study aims to assess tephra fallout hazard associated with an explosive eruption of Fogo volcano on the island of São Miguel. Numerical simulations of tephra deposition were performed using an advection-diffusion model and considering the most probable scenario for a future explosive eruption at Fogo, a Sub-Plinian eruption with Volcanic Explosivity Index of 4. The obtained results suggest that the eastern half of São Miguel Island could be the most affected, regardless of the season, and Furnas parish would be the locality with a thicker deposition of tephra (≥2 m). This approach based on the analysis of scenarios is crucial for decision-making by civil protection entities.