Estimating the size of illicit cigarette trade and tax evasion in Zambia:Results from the empty pack survey method

Introduction: Illicit cigarette trade has significant economic and public health implications. It leads to Governments tax revenue losses due to the evasion of taxes, and often these cigarettes are cheaper than legal products, which can increase tobacco consumption and deter quit attempts. We aim to estimate the size of the illicit market and establish its associated factors in Zambia. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was used to collect empty cigarette packs from the retailers and street/bins in 10 Provinces of Zambia. The proportion of illicit cigarette packs was calculated. Logistic regression was used to model the factors associated with the presence of illicit cigarettes. Results: Based on unweighted data, our study found that 12.2% of cigarettes sold on the Zambian market were illicit, including 10.1% that evaded taxation. Of the 118, 344 empty cigarette packs collected (82.0% from the retailers and 18.0% the street/bins), 343 (0.3%) packs did not have a textual health warning in English, 1490 (1.3%) had duty-free stamps even though they were purchased from retail outlets that were not duty-free shops and, 11,939 did not have a Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) stamp. Factors associated with reduced odds of illicit cigarettes sales were non-border [AOR 0.17 (CI; 0.13 – 0.23)] and local manufactured [AOR 0.44 (CI; 0.37 – 0.53)]. Conclusions: The scale of the illicit tobacco market in Zambia is significant. To help address the illicit tobacco trade, Zambia should ratify and implement the WHO Protocol on Illicit Tobacco Trade (ITP) to counter the supply of illicit cigarettes. Implications: This study presents the first national survey on illicit tobacco trade in Zambia. Although approximately one in ten cigarettes in Zambia are illicit, this prevalence is lower than in many neighbouring countries. Nonetheless, securing the cigarette supply chain remains a critical priority to prevent further tax evasion and illicit trade. These findings highlight the need for Zambia to ratify and implement the WHO Protocol on Illicit Tobacco Trade. The study also underscores the need to implement a track and trace system that would help customs officers detect counterfeit and smuggled cigarettes and intensifying border patrols.