ESCENARIOS CLIMÁTICOS FUTUROS PARA LA REGIÓN METROPOLITANA DEL VALLE DEL RÍO CUIABÁ: UN ANÁLISIS DEL PROCESO DE URBANIZACIÓN

This study analyzes the impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Region of the Cuiabá River Valley (RMVRC) projecting future maximum temperature trends in response to ongoing urbanization. With a population of over one million people and a semi-humid tropical climate, the region faces a worrying scenario, where projections indicate a significant increase in temperature, which could reach up to 10 °C by the end of the century. The research uses data from the CNRM-ESM2-1 climate model, coupled with the SSP370 scenario obtained by the WorldClim platform, analyzing the evolution of maximum temperatures in the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100. The results indicate that the urbanized areas of Baixada Cuiabana are likely to experience more intense warming, with average annual maximum temperatures reaching up to 38 °C by 2100. Furthermore, the analysis of the percentage increase relative to historical climate data shows that transitional months are projected to experience significant drying and warming, further exacerbating local climatic vulnerabilities These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted urban planning policies and integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change, protect the environment, and guarantee the quality of life for the population.