Internal initial conditions and path dependence: an experimental and AI-synthetic study of theories and awareness of unknown events

Abstract This study presents a theory-based view on path dependence, examining how decision-makers’ theories affect their preformation phase decisions. Using two online RCTs and several synthetic AI experiments with the QWERTY keyboard case, we find that awareness of path dependence combined with optimism about the future decreases the likelihood of selecting suboptimal paths. However, this effect only occurs when both factors are present, while pessimism about future outcomes does not show a significant impact, even when combined with awareness of path dependence.