Research on the structural differentiation of venture capital industry under macroeconomic fluctuations

In the context of global macroeconomic fluctuations, the venture capital (VC) industry has witnessed a structural differentiation characterized by the contraction of traditional venture capital (VC) and the rise of government-guided funds. Based on data from 2015 to 2024, this study employs panel regression and difference-in-differences (DID) models to analyze the differential impacts of macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and CPI on these two types of institutions. Taking the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) as an example, the policy effects are verified. The findings indicate that traditional VC funds are highly sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations, whereas government-guided funds exhibit countercyclical behavior due to policy support. The STAR Market has increased hard-tech IPOs in the Yangtze River Delta by 717, yet it has had a short-term negative impact on the central and western regions. The structural differentiation is driven by policy arbitrage and resource misallocation. Although government-guided funds have policy advantages, they face the contradiction between long-term strategy and short-term assessment. This study provides a basis for optimizing VC policy design and suggests implementing differentiated regulation and assessment reform to guide government-guided funds toward strategic industries.