Managerial Overconfidence and Investment Decision Biases: Classical Theories and Chinese Evidence

This study provides a systematic exploration of theoretical developments and novel measurement paradigms in CEO overconfidence research. Existing academic work reveals a methodological divide: behavioral finance scholars emphasize numerical measures, while organizational behavior researchers focus on cultural adjustment.Research conducted in China’s unique context has achieved breakthroughs through two key innovations. Technologically, institutional characteristics have been transformed into measurable parameters. Theoretically, a three-dimensional analytical framework was created, significantly enhancing explanatory capacity.The study introduces two methodological advancements: policy-text coupling analysis and relational network modeling. The former enables quantification of policy sensitivity, while the latter helps identify culturally specific decision-making clusters.Future research directions include developing multi-modal dynamic capture technologies, building institutional friction behavioral models, and constructing digital governance moderation frameworks. These developments would facilitate a paradigm shift toward dynamic system analysis. By bridging behavioral finance and organizational theory, this research offers valuable corporate governance insights. The combined approach demonstrates how cognitive biases interact with institutional settings through power relations and transitional arrangements. This understanding enables business leaders to more effectively apply these concepts in daily operations.