Modeling the volatility of stock prices for the Saudi stock marketgeneral index (TASI)

This paper aims to model the daily closing prices of the General Index (TASI), which expresses the Saudistock market by studying three time period. The first period is short, which extends from (October 1, 2018 toMay 21, 2020) and the intermediate extends from (January 1, 2017 to May 21, 2020), a total period extendsfrom (April 26, 2015 to May 21, 2020). GARCH family models were used through identification, estimation,selecting the best model, diagnosis checking of the model and forecasting. The results concluded that the bestmodel for representing the time series data for the intermediate and total period is the model is EGARCH(1,1). As for the short period, the best model is TGARCH (1,1).

Publication Details

Journal
Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences (PEN)
Published
2025-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.21533/pen.v8.i4.1365
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Modeling the volatility of stock prices for the Saudi stock marketgeneral index (TASI)

Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences (PEN)
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
article

Modeling the volatility of stock prices for the Saudi stock marketgeneral index (TASI)

article en

Abstract

This paper aims to model the daily closing prices of the General Index (TASI), which expresses the Saudistock market by studying three time period. The first period is short, which extends from (October 1, 2018 toMay 21, 2020) and the intermediate extends from (January 1, 2017 to May 21, 2020), a total period extendsfrom (April 26, 2015 to May 21, 2020). GARCH family models were used through identification, estimation,selecting the best model, diagnosis checking of the model and forecasting. The results concluded that the bestmodel for representing the time series data for the intermediate and total period is the model is EGARCH(1,1). As for the short period, the best model is TGARCH (1,1).

Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences (PEN)Vol. 8(4)
Openalex Percentile: Top 33%
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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Modeling the volatility of stock prices for the Saudi stock marketgeneral index (TASI) · Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences (PEN) (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS