UNEXPLORED QUESTIONS IN APPLYING THE GRAVITY MODEL TO KAZAKHSTAN'S TRADE: TOWARD A FUTURE RESEARCH AND POLICY AGENDA

The Gravity Model of International Trade has been widely applied to analyze Kazakhstan’s bilateral trade flows, offering critical insights into the influence of economic size, geographic distance, institutional arrangements, and trade facilitation. While existing research addresses important areas—such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Kazakhstan’s WTO accession, and trade facilitation—significant gaps remain regarding geopolitical shocks, digital trade, and firm-level heterogeneity. This paper synthesizes the current evidence and identifies three major yet under-explored research questions with substantial implications for policy and future scholarship. These include the trade effects of the Russia–Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia; the role of digital infrastructure in reducing trade costs; and the differing responsiveness of large firms and SMEs to trade costs through firmheterogeneity-extended gravity models. For each question, the paper outlines its importance, theoretical grounding, methodological pathways, and expected empirical outcomes. The study concludes by proposing a forwardlooking research agenda to guide Kazakhstan toward diversification, digitalization, and sustainable integration into global markets.