A Pre-Epidemic Analysis of Jalisco's Spatial-Temporal Baseline Suicide Mortality

Introduction. Suicide is a significant public health concern in Jalisco, Mexico, with notable variation across demographic and geographic groups. This study addresses the need for a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of suicide mortality before the COVID-19 pandemic, providing a baseline for future comparisons. Objectives. The primary objective was to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of suicide mortality in Jalisco from 2015 to 2019, focusing on sex- and region-specific differences. The study aimed to identify high-risk clusters, demographic disparities, and areas of persistent elevated mortality to inform targeted interventions. Materials and Methods. An ecological, exploratory study was conducted using depersonalized suicide mortality records from 2015 to 2019. Analyses were performed at the state and municipal levels, with mortality rates calculated per 100,000 inhabitants aged 10 years or older. The study utilized official sources for mortality and population data. Spatial patterns were assessed through choropleth mapping and statistical classification methods, and a multidisciplinary team validated the results. Results. A total of 2,837 suicide deaths were documented: 2,277 among men (80.2%) and 560 among women (19.8%). The overall mortality rate was 8.4 per 100,000 inhabitants, with 12.2 for men and 3.4 for women. Suicide rates increased in both sexes, more markedly among men. Female mortality peaked in northern municipalities, while male mortality was highest in the Tamazula, Autlán, and Colotlán health regions. High-mortality clusters remained stable over the five years. Contributing factors may include socioeconomic disparities, limited access to mental health services in rural areas, and cultural stigmas. Conclusions. These findings establish a robust pre-pandemic baseline for monitoring changes, supporting targeted public health interventions, and guiding equitable allocation of mental health resources.