Conceptual Model for Mapping Tobacco Down Streaming Potential Based on Competitiveness and Institutional Capacity of Smallholder Farmers

Tobacco export challenges, such as unstable productivity, inconsistent quality, fluctuating prices, and weak farmer institutions, require strategies to enhance competitiveness through domestic downstream development. This study aims to develop a conceptual model for mapping potential tobacco down streaming areas based on the competitiveness and institutional capacity of smallholder farmers. The research integrates spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Porter’s Diamond framework to identify key competitiveness factors, and Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM) to analyze institutional relationships. The spatial model results indicate that most smallholder tobacco plantations in Kalisat District are classified as potential (1,020 ha), followed by developing (973 ha) and non-potential (870 ha) categories, suggesting high suitability for downstream development. Competitiveness is primarily influenced by farmer human resource quality, industrial partnerships, and institutional effectiveness. The institutional model highlights critical needs, objectives, constraints, and actors that shape farmer empowerment and coordination in the value chain. This conceptual model provides an evidence-based framework for policymakers to strengthen smallholder farmer capacity and promote sustainable tobacco down streaming development in East Java.