After Nord Stream: four security dilemmas in critical maritime infrastructure protection

Abstract The Nord Stream pipeline sabotage of 2022 illustrated the vulnerability of critical maritime infrastructure (CMI) to hybrid threats in an increasingly ambiguous security context. This article asks the question: How and why do efforts to protect CMI generate unintended vulnerabilities and dilemmas in the face of hybrid threats in the contemporary maritime environment? Drawing on security studies, risk theory and legal scholarship, the article identifies four persistent dilemmas: the visibility dilemma, where publicizing hidden infrastructure locations aids both safety and targeting; the surveillance dilemma, where enhanced monitoring escalates tensions and blurs civil–military boundaries; the riskification dilemma, where amplifying risk perceptions drives up costs and deters investment; and the securitization dilemma, where framing infrastructure as a security issue creates vulnerabilities. These dilemmas arise because hybrid threats exploit legal, political and commercial ambiguities. They do not follow the logic of the traditional state-vs-state security dilemma but the underlying problem remains: measures intended to strengthen CMI security can paradoxically increase vulnerability. At stake are national security, the green transition (since offshore energy infrastructure is vital for decarbonization), and the functioning of a cyber-connected global economy, given the importance of submarine cables. This analysis demonstrates that facing persistent hybrid threats, well-intentioned protective measures pose risks to the very infrastructures and values that they seek to safeguard.