Optimization of Last-Mile Delivery (LMD) in rural areas with the use of Conjoint Analysis and market simulation

Last-Mile Delivery (LMD) in rural areas presents unique logistical challenges due to limited infrastructure, low population density, and high distribution costs. This paper investigates consumer preferences regarding LMD services in rural Greece using Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC) analysis. A structured questionnaire was used to collect responses from 50 individuals living in rural regions. Four key attributes were evaluated: delivery cost, pickup location, environmental surcharge, and pickup time. The analysis reveals that delivery cost holds the highest importance (38.41%), followed by pickup location (25.25%), environmental surcharge (18.82%), and pickup time (17.52%). A market simulation using the Randomized First Choice (RFC) method identified the preferred service profile: same-day delivery, free cost, home pickup, and no environmental surcharge, with a market penetration of 45.%. Conversely, profiles with high delivery fees were firmly rejected by consumers, even when all other features were optimal. The findings highlight actionable insights for courier and logistics companies aiming to optimize LMD strategies in rural settings. Emphasizing affordability and convenience while offering sustainable options with minimal extra cost may enhance customer satisfaction and market share. This study contributes to the design of more efficient and user-centered LMD services in less developed rural areas.