Economic base and demographic change in Mongolia’s small rural towns (2015–2023)

This study examines the spatial and economic dimensions of 247 small rural towns across Mongolia between 2015 and 2023, focusing on the interplay between traditional mainstay economic base types, livestock herding, sown area, enterprise activity (including mining, business, etc.), and changes in total population and age structure. We track demographic outcomes as changes in total population and the working-age share; component processes (births, deaths, migration) are not decomposed. Nonetheless, the spatial patterns we observe near transport corridors and mining towns are consistent with net in-migration. Drawing on economic base theory and functional rurality, the research uses standardized spatial datasets to classify settlements and track population structure in relation to economic specialization and infrastructure access. The findings reveal that livestock remains the most widespread economic base, particularly in central and western Mongolia, though increasingly vulnerable to environmental shocks. Enterprise activity has expanded significantly, especially in towns with access to rail and road networks, contributing to labor retention and demographic growth. Sown area intensity has remained concentrated in traditional grain-producing regions, with only modest expansion observed in some central and western provinces. Towns dependent on a single economic base, especially livestock or aging mining, experienced working age population decline, while towns with diversified or infrastructure-linked economies showed demographic resilience. These results contribute to the understanding of rural transformation in Mongolia and offer insights for targeted, decentralized development planning. Findings highlight the need for coordinated investment in diversified local economies to support demographic sustainability in small rural towns.