Use of water resources in the northern territories of Yakutia for industrial development: A forecast model

Active industrial development and the implementation of large- scale mining projects in Russia’s northern and Arctic territories directly impact the use and pollution of water resources. This also places significant pressure on aquatic ecosystems, posing a risk to biodiversity and the state of aquatic biological resources. Monitoring environmental indicators is particularly important in high-risk areas – northern mining-intensive territories. The objective of this study is to predictively assess the impact of industrial development on water resources in northern territories using mathematical and statistical models across municipal districts, using the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in the Russian Federation as an example. The study utilizes a combination of economic and mathematical methods, including time series dynamics, the sum of ranks method, rating analysis, multilevel modeling, decoupling, and others. The combination of cluster and multilevel modeling enabled a comprehensive analysis of the problem under consideration. Based on the constructed models, a predictive assessment of water withdrawal volume dynamics in the republic’s TOP-5 producing districts was provided. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the development of computational algorithms for multi-level modeling and forecasting of water consumption and environmental and economic impacts on water resources in districts and the republic as a whole, as well as for planning sustainable nature management and conservation of Arctic biodiversity