Impacts of climate and human drivers on ecosystem services in the first batch of national parks in China: Spatiotemporal dynamics and implications for management

National parks, as a vital component of forest ecosystem conservation networks, have been facing significant challenges such as ecosystem service degradation and habitat fragmentation due to the intensifying impacts of human activities and climate change. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics and interaction mechanisms of ecosystem services under the combined pressures of climate change and human activities in national parks remain poorly understood. Focusing on four key forest ecosystem services, we applied the InVEST model, geographic detectors, and key indicator analysis to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services before (2000), during (2010), and after (2023) the establishment of the first batch of national parks in China (FBNPCs). A novel forest-adaptive typicality-sensitivity zoning framework incorporating both human activities and ecosystem services was developed to identify priority conservation areas. The results showed that: 1) From 2000 to 2023, FBNPCs exhibited divergent trajectories. The Giant Panda National Park and Three-River-Source National Park experienced increases in carbon storage by 12.09 % and 17.83 %, respectively, while the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park saw a 44.43 % decrease in water yield. 2) Ecosystem services variations in FBNPCs were primarily driven by the interaction between economic development, land use and land cover change, and climate factors such as precipitation and temperature. 3) The typicality-sensitivity framework effectively identified 3.59 % of the total area as priority conservation zones, offering a more refined approach for delineating conservation priorities in national parks. This framework holds significant value for implementing ecological zoning and management strategies. These findings improve our understanding of how natural and anthropogenic factors interact to shape ecosystem services and offer a transferable framework for protected areas globally facing similar coupled pressures.