A framework for capturing farm-scale variation in process-based simulations for agroecosystem resilience

• Model-independent framework captures potential farm-scale variation in simulations. • Application at two UK sites captured realistic outcomes and rare extremes. • Farm-scale heterogeneity influences agroecosystem performance and resilience. • Harmonised inputs enable consistent, comparable applications of different models. • Supports scenario testing and resilience analysis under management and climate change. Agroecosystem models typically simulate average conditions in fields or over a gridded landscape. This approach overlooks the spatial variation that shapes resilience at the farm scale. Yet, this variation can strongly influence production and regulating services, and their robustness to stresses. We developed a model-independent five-step framework for capturing farm-scale variation in process-based simulations for agroecosystem resilience. The framework comprises: 1) data acquisition; 2) data processing; 3) simulation; 4) output sampling, and 5) analysis and interpretation. We applied the framework to two contrasting UK case exemplars, differing in climate, soils, and management. We used the Rothamsted Landscape Model to simulate calorific productivity, nitrate runoff and N 2 O emissions. Simulations captured realistic farm-scale variability, including rare outcomes, reflecting the emergent effects of heterogeneous soils, weather, and farm management. This flexible and transferable approach enables the simulation of agroecosystem performance and resilience using process-based models. It can help to explore system dynamics and risks at the farm scale under plausible spatial and temporal heterogeneity. By explicitly capturing these sources of heterogeneity at the scale most relevant for decision making, i.e., the farm, it provides a robust basis for applied research, policy design, and scenario exploration under current or future environmental change.

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Publication Details

Journal
Ecological Modelling
Published
2025-12-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111432
Primary Topic
Climate change impacts on agriculture
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

A framework for capturing farm-scale variation in process-based simulations for agroecosystem resilience

Ecological Modelling
Climate change impacts on agriculture
article

A framework for capturing farm-scale variation in process-based simulations for agroecosystem resilience

article en

Abstract

• Model-independent framework captures potential farm-scale variation in simulations. • Application at two UK sites captured realistic outcomes and rare extremes. • Farm-scale heterogeneity influences agroecosystem performance and resilience. • Harmonised inputs enable consistent, comparable applications of different models. • Supports scenario testing and resilience analysis under management and climate change. Agroecosystem models typically simulate average conditions in fields or over a gridded landscape. This approach overlooks the spatial variation that shapes resilience at the farm scale. Yet, this variation can strongly influence production and regulating services, and their robustness to stresses. We developed a model-independent five-step framework for capturing farm-scale variation in process-based simulations for agroecosystem resilience. The framework comprises: 1) data acquisition; 2) data processing; 3) simulation; 4) output sampling, and 5) analysis and interpretation. We applied the framework to two contrasting UK case exemplars, differing in climate, soils, and management. We used the Rothamsted Landscape Model to simulate calorific productivity, nitrate runoff and N 2 O emissions. Simulations captured realistic farm-scale variability, including rare outcomes, reflecting the emergent effects of heterogeneous soils, weather, and farm management. This flexible and transferable approach enables the simulation of agroecosystem performance and resilience using process-based models. It can help to explore system dynamics and risks at the farm scale under plausible spatial and temporal heterogeneity. By explicitly capturing these sources of heterogeneity at the scale most relevant for decision making, i.e., the farm, it provides a robust basis for applied research, policy design, and scenario exploration under current or future environmental change.

Ecological ModellingVol. 513
Rothamsted Research (GB)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 29%
Climate change impacts on agriculture
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A framework for capturing farm-scale variation in process-based simulations for agroecosystem resilience · Ecological Modelling (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS