The Main and Intersecting Predictive Effects of Out-of-Home Child Welfare Placement, Sex, and Ethnicity on Arrest in Canada

Abstract In Canada, Indigenous Peoples are disproportionately represented in both the child welfare and criminal legal systems. Despite longstanding recognition of this inequity, limited research has examined the impact of out-of-home child welfare placement on arrest within the Canadian context, particularly for Indigenous populations. This study investigates the relationship between intrusive child welfare involvement and arrest, with a focus on the moderating roles of sex and ethnicity. Using data from Canada’s General Social Survey, four hypotheses were tested. Controlling for all study variables, Indigenous Peoples were approximately four and a half times as likely as White individuals to have been arrested in the past 12 months. Individuals with a history of out-of-home placement were more than twice as likely to have been arrested compared to those without such experience. Indigenous Peoples who had experienced out-of-home placement were nearly six times as likely as their White counterparts to have been arrested. The most extreme disparity was observed among Indigenous females with out-of-home placement histories, who were over 94 times more likely to have been arrested than White females with no such history. Even without placement histories, Indigenous females faced the highest risk of arrest. These findings underscore the profound and compounding risks associated with the removal of Indigenous children, particularly girls, from their homes, highlighting the urgent need for policy and systemic reform.