From truce to tragedy: The duration effect of ceasefires on renewed conflict deadliness

This study investigates the effect of ceasefire duration on the deadliness of recurring conflicts. While ceasefires are typically seen as a step toward peace, this research explores a counterintuitive dynamic: longer ceasefires may contribute to more deadly conflict episodes when war resumes. Drawing on theories of bargaining, the study hypothesizes that protracted ceasefire periods enable warring parties to bolster their military capacities, recruit combatants, and increase combat readiness. Utilizing a cross-national dataset of civil wars and applying regression analysis, the study tests whether longer ceasefires are statistically associated with higher battle-related deaths in subsequent conflict episodes. The findings aim to contribute to the literature on conflict recurrence by highlighting how the duration and other characteristics of ceasefires influence war dynamics, offering implications for international mediators and peacebuilders seeking sustainable resolutions to civil wars.