Future demand for alternative fuels in maritime sector in EU ports by Techno-economic assessment

The IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC83) approved new greenhouse gas (GHG) requirements, in combination with a pricing and reward mechanism, coming into force starting from 2028. It aims to reduce GHG emissions by at least 70% by 2040 (compared to 2008), with a pathway to net-zero by 2050. This prioritizes ship performance and operational efficiency within compliance frameworks, encouraging the adoption of renewable fuels and clean technologies. These alternatives include fuels like liquefied natural gas, methanol, hydrogen and ammonia, but given the diverse applications of ships, finding a general solution is improbable. In this study a techno-economic assessment method for choosing alternative propulsion technologies for a selected fleet in Europe is therefore developed. The developed method evaluates technical criteria such as the specifications of the current energy system and the operational profiles, which are processed from AIS data. Furthermore, economic and regulatory requirements are considered to make holistic suggestions for defossillisation pathways for the studied fleet. A case study is performed, calculating future technology scenarios and country specific demands for hydrogen and its derivates such as methanol and ammonia. Such assessment enables informed decision making for ship and port operators to ensure the efficient distribution of resources on the journey to a net-zero global fleet.