Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination using mathematical modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis

In 2020, COVID-19 emerged as a global health crisis, prompting the widespread adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns, social distancing, and mask mandates. These measures, along with large-scale vaccination efforts, aimed to control virus transmission and reduce severe health outcomes among the elderly and those with comorbidities, albeit with considerable economic impacts. This dissertation examines the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health measures against COVID-19, with a focus on the Basque Country—a region with a highly aging population. Through mathematical modeling and health economics, we assess the role of NPIs in reducing transmission, the impact of the disease in life expectancy, as well as the cost-effectiveness of vaccination, particularly given the spread of more transmissible variants. This work presents estimates of hospitalizations and deaths prevented by vaccination, using models fitted to two years of daily data, and compares these with findings from other settings. These insights inform a cost-effectiveness analysis from a healthcare payer perspective.