Toward grid-integrated mobility: a bottom-up approach to model vehicle-to-grid potential of the German passenger car fleet

Modeling the exact battery capacity of the vehicle fleet is essential to properly scale power grids and to calculate future vehicle-to-grid load shift potentials. To precisely model the German vehicle market, we enhanced our bottom-up Vehicle Technology Scenario Model VECTOR21 by integrating different battery technologies and vehicle models that offer vehicle-to-grid functionality. The aggregation of the annually modeled new vehicle registrations provides information on the composition of the vehicle fleet and, consequently, on the potential future battery capacity for grid relief. The resulting vehicle stock data can then be used to model passenger car charging demands and to estimate resource dependencies and future recycling volumes.