Economic feasibility of wine grape cultivation in Oklahoma

This study evaluates the economic feasibility of cultivating American hybrid and European wine grape varieties in Oklahoma to inform sustainable viticulture strategies. It aims to determine which varieties offer optimal profitability under regional climatic and crushed grape market conditions through comparative analysis of financial indicators. Using a 100-year Monte Carlo simulation with primary and secondary data, the study analyzes Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) across four varieties. Results indicate that American hybrids, particularly Vignoles, dominate in financial viability, achieving consistent profitability and resilience, while Norton follows closely with stable returns and minimal risk. Cabernet sauvignon shows marginal feasibility, meeting thresholds despite challenges, whereas Pinot grigio fails to achieve financial viability. The superior performance of hybrids is driven by their extended productive lifespans, disease resistance, and cost efficiency, reducing replanting frequency and non-revenue phases. Cabernet sauvignon’s limited viability stems from higher costs offset only partially by market returns, whereas Pinot grigio’s shorter lifespan and price constraints lead to a high probability of losses. These findings highlight the economic risks of prioritizing European varieties in Oklahoma’s climate. The study concludes that prioritizing American hybrids maximizes economic sustainability, with Cabernet sauvignon as a supplementary option under favorable conditions. Pinot grigio is economically unviable.