Foot-and-Mouth Disease management and consequences on Rwanda's cattle sector: A multi-model approach integrating livestock dynamics, epidemiology, and economic analysis

This study assesses the economic and epidemiological impacts of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) on Rwanda’s cattle sector, including disease control strategies through an integrated modeling framework. The framework combines a herd dynamics (HDM), an epidemiological FMD spread model (Rw-FMD), a partial equilibrium (PE) analysis, and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore how FMD outbreaks and control measures influence cattle supply, prices, welfare, and macroeconomic outcomes. Findings show that all control strategies (quarantine, vaccination, and their combination) offer benefits. However, their effectiveness depends on producer compliance, regional coordination, and substantial financial investments. Quarantine is the most cost-effective, while vaccination provides long-term control. The combination of quarantine and vaccination results in the highest outbreak reduction but requires greater resources. The PE analysis suggests that FMD outbreaks raise cattle prices, which affects producers and consumers. Producers may benefit from lack of control interventions. Effective disease control stabilizes prices and enhances livestock survival as well as protein availability. The CGE model results indicate that robust FMD control strategies can positively affect GDP, employment, and wages, contributing to rural income growth and poverty reduction. In addition, the multiplier effects show that improved cattle productivity stimulates demand across sectors, reinforcing inclusive economic growth. Limitations related to input mobility and intersectoral linkages may represent areas for future research.